How Suppressing Volatility Makes the World Less Predictable and More Dangerous
نویسندگان
چکیده
منابع مشابه
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
Several researchers have recently documented a large reduction in output volatility. In contrast, this paper examines whether output has become more predictable. Using forecasts from the Federal Reserve Greenbooks, I find the evidence is somewhat mixed. Output seems to have become more predictable at short horizons, but not necessarily at longer horizons. The reduction in unpredictability is mu...
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